Squatting near the Bubble. Good? Bad? Annoying? Does not matter?

[bartonjoel]

I hate this strategy. It guarantees you (AT BEST) the min cash and may end up still bubbling if other tables are doing this too. The negative side of this is you are limiting the number of hands you will see to get a double up. Instead of having 8bb and 10 hands to get a double up, you will end up having 4bbs and 5 hands to get a double up. The longer the bubble last the more negative the results are.

Lets say you effectively make the bubble 80% of the time with 2bbs and then min cash for a 25% profit on the buyin and the other 20% you bust out because other tables are doing same thing and you end up one spot short. We will use a $2.20 buy in to figure out the EV. 10 tournaments you get in this spot and you cash for $2.75 8 times and cash for $0.00 2 times for a total of $22.00 from $22.00 buyins for an Estimated value of $0.00.

2 times @ $0.00 = $ 0.00
8 times @ $2.75 = $22.00
less buyins =-$22.00

EV of $0.00 and $0.00 profit each time you use this strategy

Compare this to getting a double up 60% of the time and moving up a little from a min cash, and possibly running it up 20% of the time to a real stack and having a shot at the bigger prizes for the top spots. We will use a conservative estimate of $7.50 for that 20 percent assuming first place of a $2.20 tournament is $50 - $60 we will assuming when we do run it up we end up getting combination of finishes between 18th and 1st. I want to make this number small to show you don't have to get first or even 5th place once to make this profitable. If you end up getting in final 18th once this is a much more profitable play.

4 times @ $0.00 = $ 0.00
4 times @ $3.25 = $13.00
2 times @ $7.50 = $15.00
less buyins =-$22.00

Total EV would be $ 6.00 or .60 profit each tournament

So while you will cash more often by time banking you will show less profit (assuming you have a good push fold game).

While I won't yell at people for doing this (they bought in just like me and can play their tournament how they like), It does hurt everyone at the table by not allowing them to see more hands to get their money in good and try for a double up.