hit n run strategy applied to long term?

[plutogon]

SO...been kind bored...so heres a long post...lol.

I've been thinking. Everyone says the hit n run strategy is bad because you miss out on opportunities when your opponents are better than you. If you are truly better than the players at the table, conventional wisdom says to sit there and grind it out. This is basically what the majority of profitable poker players seem to do. It is also the best way to gain experience and apply your knowledge.

However...I've been wondering if a hit n run approach can be applied long term. There is variance in poker and I think if you are atleast an average player, you will near always find yourself up atleast 50% of your buy in or more. This will happen more times than not.

So, what if you just bought out each time this happened? Idk about you guys, but I can't really remember the last time I went from my 1 BI to 0 BI, without being up some fraction of a BI.

Couldn't some person follow this strategy and successfully and consistently grow their BR? It goes against the fundamentals, but I think mathematically, it is a winning proposition.

On average your opponents will stay at the table longer than you, so you have ample chance to earn your losses back and get up to the 1.5 BI mark a significant percentage of the time. On the times you blow your BI, you only have to sucessfully pull off a hit n run twice to break even.

If you use 1.5BI as the threshold to run, then if you would need to pull a sucessful hnr greater than 67% of the time to profit. I think this seems doable?

For reference these would be break even percentages needed to make up for a lost BI: (hope my math is right).

Threshold (BI): Successful % hnr needed to break even for each lost BI:
1.1 90%
1.2 83.3%
1.3 77.8%
1.4 71.4%
1.5 66.7%
1.6 62.7%
1.7 ~60% I estimated it a little high. This is if you are making .05 BI. Should be lower.
1.8 56%
1.9 52.2%
2 50%
... ...
3 33.3%
4 25%
5 20%

Given this, I could see why a successful/skilled poker player would want to play longer. If they are better than their opponents, they only need to tripling their buy in a third of the time or getting 5x 20% of the time. Good grinders prolly are pulling this off much easier over thousands of hands then the breakeven percentages.

[plutogon]

hmmm...I had a nicely spaced table...lol and it squished it all together. At least its still coherent.

[eqgh5uea]

Ppl stay and lose with game hands vs. game hands.

Ur not going to get ppl to play with your image if u just hit n' run, hence "variance" will DEFINETLY apply. I don't agree with your logic.

[Jdawg0913]

I understand what you are saying. Booking a win is a philosophy I try to follow. I hate playing a cash session, being up half a buyin or more, then leaving a loser. That is why I put strict rules on myself for cash games on when to leave. It helps me build my roll and avoid losing sessions that should be wins.

[HopsBar28]

Ppl stay and lose with game hands vs. game hands.

Ur not going to get ppl to play with your image if u just hit n' run, hence "variance" will DEFINETLY apply. I don't agree with your logic.

I agree here - and it's not just your own image. For making a profit at a cash game, a big part of it is learning how your opponents play and using that against them. With a hit-n-run strategy, you will never have a chance to develop that information about them

[TheMech]

I think people will figure you out & start putting you all in when your out of position.Or when they think you have a weak hand.

[AZPLAYS11]

I think it depends on the type of tournament and how many players. I don't like the Hit and Run theory but it some cases it might work out for you.

[greengiant]

As far as strategy goes i thik its best to not do hit and runs except for certain occasions.

[JLynn171]

I think it depends on the type of tournament and how many players. I don't like the Hit and Run theory but it some cases it might work out for you.

The hit in run will never work for tournaments considering you can't run

[Detroitjunky]

hit and run can work on bovada, don't see names there, and I hate that btw