SO...been kind bored...so heres a long post...lol.

I've been thinking. Everyone says the hit n run strategy is bad because you miss out on opportunities when your opponents are better than you. If you are truly better than the players at the table, conventional wisdom says to sit there and grind it out. This is basically what the majority of profitable poker players seem to do. It is also the best way to gain experience and apply your knowledge.

However...I've been wondering if a hit n run approach can be applied long term. There is variance in poker and I think if you are atleast an average player, you will near always find yourself up atleast 50% of your buy in or more. This will happen more times than not.

So, what if you just bought out each time this happened? Idk about you guys, but I can't really remember the last time I went from my 1 BI to 0 BI, without being up some fraction of a BI.

Couldn't some person follow this strategy and successfully and consistently grow their BR? It goes against the fundamentals, but I think mathematically, it is a winning proposition.

On average your opponents will stay at the table longer than you, so you have ample chance to earn your losses back and get up to the 1.5 BI mark a significant percentage of the time. On the times you blow your BI, you only have to sucessfully pull off a hit n run twice to break even.

If you use 1.5BI as the threshold to run, then if you would need to pull a sucessful hnr greater than 67% of the time to profit. I think this seems doable?

For reference these would be break even percentages needed to make up for a lost BI: (hope my math is right).

Threshold (BI): Successful % hnr needed to break even for each lost BI:
1.1 90%
1.2 83.3%
1.3 77.8%
1.4 71.4%
1.5 66.7%
1.6 62.7%
1.7 ~60% I estimated it a little high. This is if you are making .05 BI. Should be lower.
1.8 56%
1.9 52.2%
2 50%
... ...
3 33.3%
4 25%
5 20%

Given this, I could see why a successful/skilled poker player would want to play longer. If they are better than their opponents, they only need to tripling their buy in a third of the time or getting 5x 20% of the time. Good grinders prolly are pulling this off much easier over thousands of hands then the breakeven percentages.