Help Jason figure this out..

[sickread23]

Wwsr23d

[JaYmONey42o]

go all in lol

[s810car]

easy one, avg stack ain't much higher so easy for a snap call by anyone, so the answer is snap fold, wait for a better spot

[rghy2]

I am no expert by any means and yes with the 7 players behind you its not the greatest spot, but there are only 8 at the table and the blinds are going to be hitting you faster. I often have waited or folded in that position, but then find myself down to 5bbs and then you are getting called no matter what you are holding. I just think with the 8bbs, and the bubble nearing, if 12bbs is the average, then they are putting their tournament life on the line calling you and alot don't like to do that around the bubble. I would make or break my game there.

I would like to add, I would not call with it in this position, or shove it if it was raised before me.

This nails most of the key points. The main goal of shoving short stacked is to steal the blinds and antes. Sure double ups are nice, but I would rather make 3 shoves short stacked and have everyone fold me up to an average stack. I'm not trying to shove in places where I know I have the best hand, instead I'm looking for spots where I can get my opponents to fold easily and still leave myself with some outs. This is a good place for that. Shoving negates some of the positional disadvantage, and from early position will represent a strong hand, making your opponents more likely to fold. You're also close to the bubble and your stack will threaten the tournament life of the average stacks. The blinds are about to hit, which will weaken your stack enough that you won't have much fold equity. In addition, the blinds are going up fast, so you don't have much time, but neither do your opponents. They just haven't realized it yet. The average stacks are very close to where everyone should be shoving, and the variance will increase as more players realize their stacks are in a desperate position and make the appropriate all-in moves.

With all of those factors, it's a no brainer shove for me.

The only reason I would consider folding is if someone I'm in a LLB is very short stacked and I'm hoping they get knocked out before I have to make a move. Even then, I would have to put some thought into it, it wouldn't be an easy fold. I treat my points like a BR and my LLBs are large enough to be more significant than a min cash, and that can affect my play. If I've already won 1 or 2 of my LLBs I'll be more likely to take a risk since I will be +EV for the game even if my Merge BR doesn't reflect it.

[jasonv12]

I still think folding is best. <.< Maybe I'm wrong.

[jasonv12]

I'd almost rather shove a random K2o or Q6s from the sb if I must.

If everyone behind me is calling with 10% of hands, 77+, A9s+, AJo+, K10s+ KQo, QJs, I'm being called over 80% of the time when you factor in those that fold are throwing away more cards not in this range.

What's worse is I think 10% of hands is a small side approximation of how often I'll be called. This range as a whole has pretty great equity on me and my tournament life still has a lot of value as one double up will not make or break much more than a min. cash still. I'm sure as a whole this play is +EV, but +EV does not equal what will win the most money in the long run because of the increased emphasis on my tournament life at this point.

I'm actually really stuck on this still almost a week later.

[layoh21]

go all in or fold man tyour playing all in or fold poker at that point.

[OnMyGrind]

Just push and hope for the best.

[rghy2]

I'd almost rather shove a random K2o or Q6s from the sb if I must.

If everyone behind me is calling with 10% of hands, 77+, A9s+, AJo+, K10s+ KQo, QJs, I'm being called over 80% of the time when you factor in those that fold are throwing away more cards not in this range.

What's worse is I think 10% of hands is a small side approximation of how often I'll be called. This range as a whole has pretty great equity on me and my tournament life still has a lot of value as one double up will not make or break much more than a min. cash still. I'm sure as a whole this play is +EV, but +EV does not equal what will win the most money in the long run because of the increased emphasis on my tournament life at this point.

I'm actually really stuck on this still almost a week later.

It's unlikely your opponents will be calling with the top 10% of their hands when the call will put an average stacks tournament life on the line. A more realistic calling range would be slightly modified to 88+, AJs, AJo+, KQs.

Shoving a random hand from the sb won't hold up well if anyone else has entered the hand because you can be fairly certain that anyone that has entered the hand at that point has you beat.

HOH Vol 2 covers this topic very well, although I'd be mildly surprised if you haven't read it already.

[lorenz0wns]

I'd almost rather shove a random K2o or Q6s from the sb if I must.

If everyone behind me is calling with 10% of hands, 77+, A9s+, AJo+, K10s+ KQo, QJs, I'm being called over 80% of the time when you factor in those that fold are throwing away more cards not in this range.

What's worse is I think 10% of hands is a small side approximation of how often I'll be called. This range as a whole has pretty great equity on me and my tournament life still has a lot of value as one double up will not make or break much more than a min. cash still. I'm sure as a whole this play is +EV, but +EV does not equal what will win the most money in the long run because of the increased emphasis on my tournament life at this point.

I'm actually really stuck on this still almost a week later.

a10s is 42% vs that range. i would shove