Should US Players Hit Merge, Bodog, or Cake Following Black Friday?
Some fans of Killer Poker Analysis have been asking me whether Merge, Bodog, or Cake are viable online poker options for US players following Black Friday. Personally, I had no money in these sites before Black Friday, and I haven’t put any money on these sites since. If the DoJ went after PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP, then it’s only a matter of time before the DoJ goes after Merge, Bodog, and Cake. After all, is Merge, Bodog, or Cake conducting business differently from how PokerStars, Full Tilt, or UB/AP did? If the DoJ thinks they have a case against PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP, then I’d be shocked if the DoJ couldn’t build similar cases against Merge, Bodog, and Cake.
There’s a chance that the DoJ might not pursue action against Merge, Bodog, or Cake until they can make charges stick to (or make settlements with) PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP. And if this is the case, there’s probably a timeline on the order of months for Merge, Bodog, and Cake to be somewhat viable playing options for US players. However, a timeline on the order of months is pure speculation. The bottom line here is that unless the DoJ can’t settle with PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP – and then fails to make any charges stick – it’s only a matter of time before Black Friday repeats itself with Merge, Bodog, and Cake.
It’s probably highly unlikely that funds seized in a second wave would be kept by the money-hungry US government. But given that a prosecution precedent now exists, I think that the US government will be less lenient with Merge, Bodog, and Cake – and less understanding of those in the US who choose to play for real money at those sites. We can all be confident in getting money back from PokerStars, Full Tilt, and UB/AP, but I don’t know if we can be as confident in getting our money back from Merge, Bodog, or Cake despite our legal system being based on the premise of “innocent until proven guilty.”
Suppose that the DoJ were to allow for Merge, Bodog, and Cake to give balances back to US players? Even if this were to happen, how confident can we be in getting our money back? Bodog’s non-poker business is robust enough where the probability of getting stiffed by Bodog is probably very close to 0. Merge and Cake are less certain. Before putting money on to Merge or Cake, I’d want to randomly sample tables at various times of the day – in an attempt to gauge the percentage of US players. If the percentage of US players were to be high, I’d stay away. If the percentage of US players were to be low, I’d feel safer.
Personally, I’m staying away from online poker until online poker businesses are able to serve US players without any legal ambiguity on any front (after all, being able to play legally means nothing if online poker sites don’t have a legal means by which they can transfer funds to and from player accounts). Granted, this decision is largely motivated by the availability of live poker Las Vegas. I know that some are saying that it’s important to play on Merge, Bodog, or Cake – to make a statement that US citizens want to exercise their right to engage in leisurely activities of their choosing in the privacy of their own homes. However, members of Congress aren’t going to care about traffic numbers on Merge, Bodog, and Cake. As I point out in Black Friday: A Wake-Up Call for a Broken Nation, we have a Congress filled with elected representatives that don’t act for the people and by the people. We have a Congress that acts for special interest groups and for those with deep pockets. Thinking and writing are what I do best, so that’s what I’ve been doing. However, at some point, the US people need to do more than rant on the internet. We need to act. Only through tangible action can we:
1.) Overhaul Congress as it currently exists
2.) Get all fourth degree laws off the books
3.) Return the US to its libertarian roots.
To the question cited in this blog entry’s title, my answer is this. I’m currently not playing online poker until online poker operations are able to serve US customers without any legal ambiguity on any front. And for those with easy to access to live poker, taking my route seems to make the most sense. For those without easy access to live poker, I don’t think playing on Merge, Bodog, or Cake is absolutely horrible. And the lower the percentage of US players on your site of choice, the less horrible your decision to play online becomes. But you should only be playing on Merge, Bodog, or Cake as long as you’re fine with losing all the money in your account. After all, even if online poker were to be unambiguously legal on all fronts, it would still be poor form to have money you need in an online poker account. Having money you care about in an online poker account is simply bad life management.
May Your EV Always Be Positive!
Tony Guerrera
i saw this td ay and hope they dont take away these tooo,but i, guess wouldnt h appen right a way anyways tho
Results 11 to 20 of 20
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04-26-2011, 02:51 PM #11
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04-26-2011, 04:35 PM #12
- Join Date
- Feb 2011
- Posts
- 48
Hmmmmm
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04-27-2011, 04:44 AM #13
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Posts
- 40
usa is bottom of the barrel in freeroll action
hell in a handbasket, lucco brazzi (foreigners) sleeps with the fishes(donks),the song -im back in the ussr, back in the ussr, im going to get a new job, my bad beat action is the lowest its been ever, dont u love the legal system in the usa- they say its the best in the world-hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, we have he highest crime rate and 90% of serial killers r from usa, our court systems arent tied up and we have plenty of prosecuters to catch those evil poker players, we only have over 2 million jailed prisoners so lets add a couple more. lets also keep health care on the back burner, this poker thing is much more important. the truth is someone else is behind all this online poker destruction spree and it probably is some casinos, all types because they would benifit. but u can still play poker here so i really dont know who is the culprit. if i knew of a better place to live i would move , canada is great but u freeze and i cant take the cold. western europe is great but i would be all alone. im stuck here. the best thing about usa is that we have the best golf courses in the world. california ,southeast and hawaii just about the best weather. entertainment galore. we need to take poker away so the people can blow it elsewhere like the track or sportsbetting which is legal.we wonthave a homeless problem once we get rid of online poker completely because that is the major cause of becoming broke. we might cure aids and other diseases by all the saved money from online poker. i gauess those old time babtists were right that cards and dancing r a grievious evil. the prosecutors have to make a living and must keep busy, i guess ther isnt enough people on the fbis most wanted list so lets add ft and ps and the evil men behind this atroucious and hitleristic evil of online poker.it online poker does have 4 6s and it might be the antichrist. they drew lots to replace Judas, i guess that crime of gambling has went past the statute of limitations. the irony is this, there r a million more important things to take care of in the usa than this poker crusade. they tried to stop alcohol, but it came back and im sure after a while online poker will be completely legal in the usa.just dont drive under the influence of a really bad beat that knocked u out, u might wreck the car. i forgot most online poker is at home, your sanctuary
getting our money back is just part of it.
they opened a can of warms when they
stoped usa from playing.
that is totaly takeing away our freedem
to play poker. that in it self is wrong and unfair,
they have no right telling us what we can and cant do with our money.
that is where there sticking there hands where they dont belong
Poker Players Alliance
FIGHT FOR YOUR RIGHTS
ppapoker: New PPA Video: President Obama: Defend the Card Game You Love to Play YouTube - President Obama: Defend the Card Game You Love to Play via @youtube #pokerpage
carbonpoker" twittiebirds
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04-27-2011, 04:45 AM #14
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Posts
- 40
i agree with this 100%
page
carbonpoker" twittiebirds
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04-27-2011, 08:34 AM #15i saw this td ay and hope they dont take away these tooo,but i, guess wouldnt h appen right a way anyways tho
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04-27-2011, 04:11 PM #16
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05-13-2011, 09:51 PM #17
wish someone could do something about it.
" JUST KILLIN TIME,,, WAITING FOR TIME TO KILL ME,,,"
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05-24-2011, 01:23 AM #18
Good Post... Hope it will do some good one of these days.
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05-24-2011, 02:45 PM #19
- Join Date
- May 2011
- Posts
- 179
gracias por el aporte, muy interesantee!!
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06-02-2011, 01:26 AM #20
Yeah they say Washington supports online poker, I call BS. If they support it then, why is it illegal.