Understanding Variance

[Mrlova]

This is a good article that I thought people here might like. Then again, I have the feeling even if everyone read this people are still going to say Merge is rigged so maybe it's just a mute point

"The one concept that had always perplexed me as I was getting a start in poker was why I would go on streak of losing and winning, where on one hand I could not seem to win a hand and the other no one had a chance of beating me. The idea of variance was lost on me and I conceded that I was either very lucky or very unlucky at any given time. Now, you will hear people talk about variance in the broadest terms and will glaze over the subject, but this is one I think we need to spend some extra time on because it comes into play with not only poker but everything we do in our lives.
Have you ever been in a casino, dog track or home game and hear someone proclaim that they are most unlucky person in the world? I know I have felt the sting of defeat over and over again and never knew when the tides would shift. Sometimes the tides don’t shift for months, sometimes it is only a few days. When we go on these long streaks, we must remember our teaching. We must regress back to the simplest form of the game because this is what is going to get us through this rough spell. If we fight the tide it is only going to drag us further from shore. Now, it is nature in this current poker climate to get fancy with out play and try to bluff everyone off of every pot because we are 100% convinced that poker is a skill game and nothing more. Well the truth is that poker in the short run is teemed with variance. This is something that poker players have a long time getting used to because it contradicts the “egotistical” driving force behind what makes most of us play the game. For some, money is not all the as important then winning. Now the two ideas seem to go together, but to the ego driven mind winning is more then dragging a pot…it is dragging a pot when you weren’t supposed to. We all love this feeling and it is this feeling that keeps us coming back for more. Money is always great but we must learn to control this desire to constantly outplay our opponents. Variance is a fact and it is not something we can circumvent no matter how much we try."

originally written by: "Joe from Coolercash"

[IgotBIGnutz]

Variance can be a bastard but some people just dont realize its part of the game and it can be painful to have your pocket aces cracked by a flush or straight draw but variance occurs and 9 times out 10 that hand will win but we tend as people only to rem. the bad beats

[scottieb668]

wow yes it is a tough thing to learn.. but you want people to call when you are ahead.....