Is this hand totally unavoidable? WWYD?

[sickread23]

Check the river.......

So I am calling a river bet, but not betting 4 value when checked 2 me? Are you remotely serious? I could see if I had a monster stack behind and was worried about getting c/raised...... but I had less than a pot sized bet. Unless I was live and could read his soul.... I would never check the river back there.

[Mpettit2]

I agree with checking the river also


There is no point in betting the river it does nothing for you and gives you NO value. He is not folding anything better than AQ and if he calls he is going to have AQ beat. Your better off just checking and seeing his hand. Your hand has a lot more showdown value then betting the river.

[sickread23]

I agree with checking the river also


There is no point in betting the river it does nothing for you and gives you NO value. He is not folding anything better than AQ and if he calls he is going to have AQ beat. Your better off just checking and seeing his hand. Your hand has a lot more showdown value then betting the river.

But how can you call a hypothetical river bet by him which would be less than pot sized but not bet 4 value? I guess I may have folded if he had shoved the river because I would have found it difficult for him to find a bluff. Having said all that I feel it is closer than I initially thought. All in all, I just got unlucky. I was musing to myself," is folding pre flop actually a viable/optimal play given the action and stack sizes."

[ipoopchips]

But how can you call a hypothetical river bet by him which would be less than pot sized but not bet 4 value? I guess I may have folded if he had shoved the river because I would have found it difficult for him to find a bluff. Having said all that I feel it is closer than I initially thought. All in all, I just got unlucky. I was musing to myself," is folding pre flop actually a viable/optimal play given the action and stack sizes."

I don't think I would of folded the hand preflop no matter what. With the other 3 in the pot, you are getting pretty decent pot odds and a good chance to be paid off on nut flush. Only way i fold is if the have reads on other two callers and they are straight nits.

[Mpettit2]

But how can you call a hypothetical river bet by him which would be less than pot sized but not bet 4 value? I guess I may have folded if he had shoved the river because I would have found it difficult for him to find a bluff. Having said all that I feel it is closer than I initially thought. All in all, I just got unlucky. I was musing to myself," is folding pre flop actually a viable/optimal play given the action and stack sizes."

Its all about putting yourself in the BEST possible situations and avoiding risk. Just an unfortunate situation but betting the river is just putting yourself at more risk because he is calling with a range but better than AQ and he isnt folding say AK or set ect.

[Prawney]

So you raise the river and what hands you beat are gonna call you? AJ maybe. All weaker hands will likely fold. All better hands call. You talk about playing optimally. Checking behind is the Optimum play.

Betting the river is just pointless. Your max value arguement has no ground because your not getting value from a bet because weaker hands arent calling. Lets say you put 4K into the pot and hes put 4K into the pot. Your hand has showdown value so you check behind. If you have a better hand you win 4K, If he has the better hand you lose 4K. Lets say this time you bet 2K on the river to put him all in. He folds his weaker hands so your 2K is returned and you win 4K . If he has a better hand he calls and you lose 6K. By your own admission there is like 1 hand possibly 2 in which he calls with a weaker hand and you win 6K.

So he has 1 possible hand that makes a river bet profitable. Thats assuming hes even calling with AJ.

[Mpettit2]

So you raise the river and what hands you beat are gonna call you? AJ maybe. All weaker hands will likely fold. All better hands call. You talk about playing optimally. Checking behind is the Optimum play.

Betting the river is just pointless. Your max value arguement has no ground because your not getting value from a bet because weaker hands arent calling. Lets say you put 4K into the pot and hes put 4K into the pot. Your hand has showdown value so you check behind. If you have a better hand you win 4K, If he has the better hand you lose 4K. Lets say this time you bet 2K on the river to put him all in. He folds his weaker hands so your 2K is returned and you win 4K . If he has a better hand he calls and you lose 6K. By your own admission there is like 1 hand possibly 2 in which he calls with a weaker hand and you win 6K.

So he has 1 possible hand that makes a river bet profitable. Thats assuming hes even calling with AJ.

Agree completely

[sickread23]

So you raise the river and what hands you beat are gonna call you? AJ maybe. All weaker hands will likely fold. All better hands call. You talk about playing optimally. Checking behind is the Optimum play.

Betting the river is just pointless. Your max value arguement has no ground because your not getting value from a bet because weaker hands arent calling. Lets say you put 4K into the pot and hes put 4K into the pot. Your hand has showdown value so you check behind. If you have a better hand you win 4K, If he has the better hand you lose 4K. Lets say this time you bet 2K on the river to put him all in. He folds his weaker hands so your 2K is returned and you win 4K . If he has a better hand he calls and you lose 6K. By your own admission there is like 1 hand possibly 2 in which he calls with a weaker hand and you win 6K.

So he has 1 possible hand that makes a river bet profitable. Thats assuming hes even calling with AJ.

Yeah I am warming 2 your analysis. Just difficult 2 believe he has a hand that beats me given that he checked. It's just difficult 2 try 2 understand some of these players. I mean if he is a good thinking player he has 2 know that I have a real hand.... or why would I bet the turn 2 set up a river shove. So assuming he is a good player i would reason he would not have A10 in that spot given the fact that a good player is not likely 2 play a hand like A10 in that spot becuase it is so easily dominated. Now on the flip side.... if I think he is a bad player..... which fwiw I did..... then I can imagine that he would call with weak Aces.... and I would also conclude that he would bet 2 pair on the river. I mean I really thought he was bad..... and he was..... and I also really thought that a 10 was definately in his kicker wheelhouse. But given the fact that he checked and I thought he was bad I bet. I think you would be surprised how many top regs on merge would bet there 2. In reality.... I think its semantics....... not really imo anything overtly right or wrong with checking/betting river. One of those rare spots where both options imo are about break even. Good analysis though Prawney.... I think you definitely turned a definite bet in my mind.... into prolly a check given the fact that if it is nearly break even... then i would have been in a lot better spot 2 have checked and kept my stack in a great spot. I took the higher variance line.... and as I continue 2 type I think I really do like a c/back on the river. HUH.

[madjek]

Lol let me hang myself? Are you insinuating that if he bets river i should fold? He would have had to put me on a total bluff, which is highly unlikely given the action. Because if he thought I had a hand like I did he would logically bet the river. Its just unlucky he had rivered 2 pair...... but I was calling his river shove anyway.... so if he checks it is illogical 2 not get value from hands like AJ A9 or who knows what else. If he is bad enough 2 have called mp with A10 and proceed.... then he is bad enough 2 pay me off with weaker holdings.

Have to agree with prawn, don't see shoving river, at that point I'd have to think , after he checks river that he's only calling a shove if he has top pair beat. I understand wanting to get more value if he has A 9 or A J, but I think I'd be content with the pot size and min loss if he has better hand

[Prawney]

Yeah I am warming 2 your analysis. Just difficult 2 believe he has a hand that beats me given that he checked. It's just difficult 2 try 2 understand some of these players. I mean if he is a good thinking player he has 2 know that I have a real hand.... or why would I bet the turn 2 set up a river shove. So assuming he is a good player i would reason he would not have A10 in that spot given the fact that a good player is not likely 2 play a hand like A10 in that spot becuase it is so easily dominated. Now on the flip side.... if I think he is a bad player..... which fwiw I did..... then I can imagine that he would call with weak Aces.... and I would also conclude that he would bet 2 pair on the river. I mean I really thought he was bad..... and he was..... and I also really thought that a 10 was definately in his kicker wheelhouse. But given the fact that he checked and I thought he was bad I bet. I think you would be surprised how many top regs on merge would bet there 2. In reality.... I think its semantics....... not really imo anything overtly right or wrong with checking/betting river. One of those rare spots where both options imo are about break even. Good analysis though Prawney.... I think you definitely turned a definite bet in my mind.... into prolly a check given the fact that if it is nearly break even... then i would have been in a lot better spot 2 have checked and kept my stack in a great spot. I took the higher variance line.... and as I continue 2 type I think I really do like a c/back on the river. HUH.

In this spot its not so much if he has a hand that beats you. Its whether or not he has a hand that he will call with that doesnt beat you. On this board there isnt really a hand other than maybe AJ that will call and your ahead of. When you factor in you win the same size pot when you check behind and when you bet and he folds it makes it clear that betting does nothing for you here except putting more of your stack unneccessarily at risk.

Fwiw betting instead of checking behind when i had showdown value used to be one of the biggest leaks in my game.