Friday parlay and weekend baseball series betting trends

[rivdee]

As Tommy has been putting up parlays, I feel I should point something out; I understand the thrill of hitting a 7 teamer at 130:1 odds, but the reality is it never happens. I always feel you're better off taking a 3/4 teamer and betting it stronger...that being said, here are some games for tonight, and some trends for the next 3 days.

[rivdee]

Tonight's parlay:
Stl (-141) at Florida
Chi (-180) at Houston

These are both in my continued efforts to always bet against the Marlins and Astros

Phillies (+1.5 -210) at Colorado
Colorado has had trouble with Kendrick over his career, and he's a groundball pitcher in that ballpark. Phils will keep it close

NYY (+1.5 -160) at LAA
Angels have been inconsistent, bullpen has been bad, and they can't hit lefties. I like the money line here too, but the run line is safer.

5.48 : 1 on this bet.

[jcla6985]

Hmm, well not sure what this is about or where it is

[rivdee]

I'll put up the weekend stuff too; great value on betting a few of these series'

[rivdee]

OK, here are some series that I like value wise:

Oakland (-180) vs. Seattle
Oakland is 41-9 in last 50 vs. a team with a losing record.

Cleveland (-115) vs. Washington
Washington is overrated by odds makers/Cleveland has won last 7 interleague games and traditionally kills the NL East

St Louis (-240) vs. Florida / Chicago (-220) vs. Houston
Two worst teams in baseball.

If you can parlay all 4, take it. Merge doesn't allow it, but I think BCP does

[BC7Falcons72]

I agree you're better off taking a 3-4 team parlay, but I have to disagree when you say 7 team parlays never hit. I hit a 7 team and an 8 team parlay last month, and recently been missing out on my 10 team parlays by 2-3 games. Why not an make an educated guess and bet $1-$2 a piece on 10 team parlay also? I feel like I'ma hit a 10 teamer sooner than later.

[rivdee]

I agree you're better off taking a 3-4 team parlay, but I have to disagree when you say 7 team parlays never hit. I hit a 7 team and an 8 team parlay last month, and recently been missing out on my 10 team parlays by 2-3 games. Why not an make an educated guess and bet $1-$2 a piece on 10 team parlay also? I feel like I'ma hit a 10 teamer sooner than later.

My theory is based on taking points for games, not money lines (a team that's -300 isn't a coin flip in essence).
My take on this is how the odds diverge once you add more teams. For example:
- 3 teamer pays 6:1, rough odds are 8:1
- 4 teamer pays 10:1, rough odds are 16:1
- 5 teamer pays 20:1, rough odds are 32:1
etc.

So I'd personally prefer 3 because you're getting the closest odds between hitting it and the payout. I usually do a 3 teamer heavy, and then an el cheapo 7-8 teamer. My point with Tommy's bets was they were all 7-8 teamers and they shared a lot of the same games (so if 1 loses, he's done).

[tommy62278]

My theory is based on taking points for games, not money lines (a team that's -300 isn't a coin flip in essence).
My take on this is how the odds diverge once you add more teams. For example:
- 3 teamer pays 6:1, rough odds are 8:1
- 4 teamer pays 10:1, rough odds are 16:1
- 5 teamer pays 20:1, rough odds are 32:1
etc.

So I'd personally prefer 3 because you're getting the closest odds between hitting it and the payout. I usually do a 3 teamer heavy, and then an el cheapo 7-8 teamer. My point with Tommy's bets was they were all 7-8 teamers and they shared a lot of the same games (so if 1 loses, he's done).

correct. if i lose 1 im done in most cases. i swithed up 1 or 2 in each parlay. the combinations in a 9 teamer is outrageous. but i also agree with bc7. i missed a 9 teamer by 1 game last week. missed a 10 teamer by 2 games a cpl weeks ago. its all about gambling. ill gamble 1$ to win 1k all day. and if you noticed ive been throwing in a few 3-5 teamers to try and make a lil money

[rivdee]

correct. if i lose 1 im done in most cases. i swithed up 1 or 2 in each parlay. the combinations in a 9 teamer is outrageous. but i also agree with bc7. i missed a 9 teamer by 1 game last week. missed a 10 teamer by 2 games a cpl weeks ago. its all about gambling. ill gamble 1$ to win 1k all day. and if you noticed ive been throwing in a few 3-5 teamers to try and make a lil money

Of course, and that's what I was trying to say: I love the thrill of hitting one and making a ton cheap. I'm still looking at it from the bookie perspective; I don't allow anyone to make parlays of more than 4 teams with me (that's how books get busted), but the guys that own me during football season do 3 teamers and smoke it.

Please tell me you never do reverses

[BC7Falcons72]

Gl Rivdee! I've put in 2 parlays as of right now and going to put in 2-3 more smaller ones here in a bit. Here's the two I have so far...

[902] TOTAL u8-115 (LA DODGERS vrs PIT PIRATES)
( S FIFE -R / J LOCKE -L )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u8?-115 (MIL BREWERS vrs CIN REDS)
( K LOHSE -R / B ARROYO -R )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [905] CHI CUBS +114
( ACTION )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [908] TOTAL u7?-115 (STL CARDINALS vrs MIA MARLINS)
( J WESTBROOK -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
06/14/2013 @ 04:35 PM MLB [910] TOTAL u7EV (SFO GIANTS vrs ATL BRAVES)
( M BUMGARNER -L / K MEDLEN -R )
06/14/2013 @ 05:40 PM MLB [912] TOTAL u9?-110 (PHI PHILLIES vrs COL ROCKIES)
( K KENDRICK -R / J NICASIO -R )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [917] KC ROYALS +147
( ACTION )
06/14/2013 @ 05:05 PM MLB [919] TOR B-JAYS +111
( ACTION )
06/14/2013 @ 07:05 PM MLB [925] NY YANKEES +118
( ACTION )
06/14/2013 @ 07:05 PM MLB [928] OAK ATHLETICS -1?+11

$1 to win $1194.65


[902] TOTAL u8-115 (LA DODGERS vrs PIT PIRATES)
( S FIFE -R / J LOCKE -L )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u8?-115 (MIL BREWERS vrs CIN REDS)
( K LOHSE -R / B ARROYO -R )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [905] TOTAL o7?+105 (CHI CUBS vrs NY METS)
( E JACKSON -R / S MARCUM -R )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [908] TOTAL u7?-115 (STL CARDINALS vrs MIA MARLINS)
( J WESTBROOK -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
06/14/2013 @ 05:40 PM MLB [912] TOTAL u9?-110 (PHI PHILLIES vrs COL ROCKIES)
( K KENDRICK -R / J NICASIO -R )
06/14/2013 @ 07:10 PM MLB [914] SDG PADRES -1?+180
( T CAHILL -R / E STULTS -L )
06/14/2013 @ 04:10 PM MLB [917] KC ROYALS +147
( ACTION )
06/14/2013 @ 05:05 PM MLB [919] TOR B-JAYS +111
( ACTION )
06/14/2013 @ 07:05 PM MLB [925] NY YANKEES +130
( ACTION )
06/14/2013 @ 07:05 PM MLB [928] OAK ATHLETICS -1?+110
( J SAUNDERS -L / T MILONE -L

$2 to win $3000