Sad thing is I knew it was coming

[sprocketdog]

Another hand in PARADISE//

[crypiter]

cryp - i know your pain exactly about this... i am also far below any statistical normalcy when holding premium cards like that: 1-9 while holding KK, and 1-2 while holding AA...

i have never in my life seen these hole cards get so consistently hammered until i started playing the Merge network this year.

yes, i know this happens. but standard deviation with any form or reasonable variance while holding these type of cards indicates this should be generating more wins than losses when viewed in comparison with all other hands, not extreme strings of defeats. it defies logic as completely counter-intuitive to consider that KQo is statistically a better prospect than holding AA... yet, that is exactly is begging to simulate on the Merge network.

the statistical probability that KK is defeated 10 out of 11 times is more than three standard deviations [we're talking far under a 1% probability here. this condition is even more extreme for holding AA and losing 8 out of 8 times. the probability this occurs is closer to thousands of one percentage than even 1% itself...

i am utterly baffled by this. something fishy is going on over at Merge.

Amen my friend!!! I don't want to be one of those people saying it's rigged. I never have been and I've played various rooms online since 2005. However when going over my hands here at Merege I have to agree that the most frequent outcomes defy the mathmatical probablilities. Of course it is possible(even if not probable) for there to be a fraction of 1% chance runs. However the math should correct itself and certainly these statistical anomalies shouldn't be happening to a large group of people. Again, I don't want to say it's rigged but as roadkill said something fishy is going on. Whether their RNG just sucks or something else there is a problem. Over the holidays I am going to find some time to go over all my hands here at Merge and crunch the actual numbers to see if it's as crazy long term as it seems.

I will be honest with what I find and post how I got to my numbers. If it's way off maybe others will do the same and we will have a larger base to test on. If it comes out how it should or close then I will be more than happy to say so and this will also help peopele who feel like I do know that it's not actually as bad as you think in your head. When analysing a smaller set of hands.

[panther]

thats merge. always super tacky.

[LIB_CON]

I'm gonna ask an amateur's question about all this....
when doing the stats math, shouldn't I be taking into consideration what stakes level of game it is?
I mean, there is a huge difference in player style or antics between certain freerolls and higher games, way more callers

[123loweman]

it gets frustating ppl called your AA down and it gets cracked everytime ...and ppl play there hand like they have AA..kills me

[crypiter]

I'm gonna ask an amateur's question about all this....
when doing the stats math, shouldn't I be taking into consideration what stakes level of game it is?
I mean, there is a huge difference in player style or antics between certain freerolls and higher games, way more callers

The stakes don't change the math so much as it changes your strategy. also,you will find yourself in situations you may have not found yourself in at higher stakes. For example you may make a bet that should get a draw off a hand and it will at high stakes bc not enough odds but at low stakes people call bc they wanna hit that draw regardless of their odds. However, the probability of you fading the draw remains mathmaticaly the same. Just like someone may call 87 suited for a 40bb all in at low stakes against your AA but not at high stakes. The probability of your AA holding against that 78 is the same regardless of the buy in level.

So you may find your getting more bad beats at lower stakes bc more gambling is done but the probability of winning or losing a given hand based on the cards doesn't change. I am no math or poker expert so anyone can feel free to add to this comment or bring up a point I am wrong about.

[mjo]

It's a part of the game.

true!

tonight I have been beat by 6's
even called it on the last few hands (seen it coming)
AK vs K6 (was out chipped)
AA vs 56s (backdoored 66)
& so on...

sometimes we tend to forget how many times we crack AA with junk

works both ways

[TwocardCadet]

It happens. I am digging the layout though

[NateVest]

I am sure that people playing live games have documented their losses with AA against a moderate hand. I am looking for something to add to this thread to show that everyone, even professional poker players see these bad beats we see, just not as frequently. Obviously the higher the stakes, the more protective players will be with their stack, but if we are playing freerolls and micro-stakes, so you will see a higher amount of these beats since a lot of players that play freerolls/micro-stakes are very loose with their stack. Most have just started to play the game, so you will see more bad calls than you would in the 100k GTD for example.

[j1mj4m]

Starting Game #65072868-62
madjek64 is the Dealer
Shuffling Cards
j1mj4m posted Small Blind 125
jerseytime5 posted Big Blind 250
You Were Dealt (Kh,Kc)
HighwayRamblercowboy folds
OMGitsPooffyFooffy folds
TreeGod64 folds
FlipNY folds
vtriclone folds
madjek64 folds
j1mj4m is All In
jerseytime5 calls 6947
j1mj4m shows (Kh,Kc)
jerseytime5 shows (Ac,6d)
Dealing Flop (8c,6h,Tc)
Dealing Turn (Td)
Dealing River (Ah)
jerseytime5 wins 13894 from pot with Two Pair Aces and Tens
You were knocked out