Lost with Ace King Twice!! against crappier hands in poker owned tourney

[AAallday]

It's all a part of poker and the more it happens to you, the more likely you are to not go all-in willy-nilly with just a pair of aces on the flop.

I tend to disagree with this.

Take the second situation as the example.

Don't have all the info but he said he has AK and oppo has AJ and flop comes down with AAX lets assume X=6 but almost any card (Less a J or something giving a four card flush) changes the situation much.

The AJ is about an 8-1-1 8 times the AK wins, once the AJ wins and once the hands split the pot out of ten times (3 outs, board pairs and no K or J come)

This means if the same scenario is ran 1000 times (or you do this play 1000 times over your poker life) you will win 800, lose 100 and tie 100 ie up about 700 times the amount that is "all-in" seems good.

BUT you must think what hands will actually call you on the all-in which changes the math DRAMATICALLY. (This assumes he always calls)

Say the pot is Y and your effective stack is X (the lesser of your or oppo stack).

My simplified explanation is below.

A is the chance your oppo folds (expressed as a decimal)
B is the chance your oppo calls and has a better hand. (66 or A6 rem I assume the last card on the flop was a 6, AA isnt possible since 3 are in play already)


The value of the play during each scenario is shown as,

A: V = Y

now let u be the chance the your hand wins, z be the chance your oppo hand wins and q is the chance of a split pot. (After the turn and the River)

B: V = u(2X+Y) - z(2X+Y) + 1/2q(2X+Y)

The cost of making this play is your effective stack , X, and lets again let V represent the value of the play , bringing this altogether we get the following,

V = AY + B(u(2X+Y) - z(2X+Y) + 1/2q(2X+Y)) - X

Let us come back to our definition of A and B then explain why it is important to see how they should impact u, z and q.

What would the villain actually call with in this scenario. Now depending on the villains play style and what happened pre-flop you may be able to put a range on the opponents hand and rule out A6 suited (or unsuited tho it would be hard to play in most situations) or 66. (The only hands you are a dog to). These are almost a certain call.

The hands that you would beat and he would call with include KK or other high pocket pair, a smaller A or 6x. Now i know your oppo did call with AJ but how many of these hands would you oppo be in with and call. Not alot.

Your opponents fold % may be extermly high in this case and that seems good.

Long story short your opponent will most likely fold unless he has you beat, this makes the bet bad.

This means that you will either A win money you were supposed to anyways (just earlier) or B lose ALL of your money the best play is bet a smaller amount that would actually entice a call from a weaker hand.
The only converse to the above would be when he is on a come hand and you give him odds with a smaller bet, although the allin does force the AJ and worse to fold (OR IT SHOULD because truly what can AJ beat besides a bluff!) and protect your hand it appears to be the weaker play.

So not only does the All-in risk the tournament life it also seems like the worse play.

Hey look no math required to get the answer we were looking for. I just show the math for those intuative readers that can deduct the final reasoning as the math is evolving.

So my disagree answer is one step thinking. If we go farther and use 2 step thought the answer does change.

Disclaimer: I AM A FISH and take all this with a grain of salt.