Try thinking about things differently.

[jasonv12]

I get dealt 8s8h deep stacked from early position and raised and I get 3 callers all with position on me.

The board comes AK6 with two spades. Do I cbet here? If I check will I get blown off from spades or a non-hand? Will I give hands like QJ too easy of a ride? Can I get a single ace or king to fold? I'm thinking about these things and weighing what to do (which is pretty obvious actually in hindsight) and I realize something interesting:

What are the chances someone does have an ace or a king? We can assume the hands they are calling with are weighted towards these cards. What else do we know?

Between the flop and my 2 cards there are 47 cards left in the deck. 6 of them are the other aces and kings. My 3 opponents are holding 6 cards. This means that for "card #1" there is a 6/47 chance of them holding an ace or king, for "card number 2" a 6/46 chance, 6/45, 6/44, etc. until one is accounted for. If we add these results for 6 cards, we get the chance of an ace or king being out. To make the math simple, say the 47 is a constant, that would say there is a 36/47 chance that an ace or king is out, not even including the dead cards before it and not factoring in the fact their ranges are weighted towards aces and kings.

Put this together with equity from spades and and random other draws, and we're in horrible shape with little room to improve, but the question is: is a cbet worth it. If we assume they will call with an ace or king at least once, not factoring in flushes, future equity, or chances to get them to fold with more barrels, we have less that 11/47 (and honestly less than 10% with everything factored in) to win the pot right there. So unless we think we can bet like a fraction of a bb AND get away with it, check fold works!

I knew the odds were stacked against me, but until I took the time to slow down and really think about it, I was no where near able to realize how bad a cbet truly would be there. I'm sure you can get there with conventional rules, but this deep understanding really allows for you to open your mind to all the possibilities and think about things with more exactness. Sorry Barry Greenstein.