I Understand Negative Variance, but This IS INSANITY.

I have lost these hands. I do not know how to upload screenshots onto a post, but This is all honesty, all hands are showdowns that have happened to me in the past 2-3 days.

1. 5-5 loses to A-9 ( 60-40 in my favor )

2. A-A loses to J-J ( 95-5 in my favor)

3. K-K loses to 7-7 (95-5 in my favor) * 7-7 courtesy of ProBlackBird, who proceeded to laugh at me afterwards*

4. A-A loses to 9-9 (95-5 in my favor) * 9-9 courtesy of gametime74*

5. A-A loses to J-J (95-5 in my favor)

----Non-Showdown Hands

-I have 3-4 off, and get a walk in the BB, three-way flop, I'm Shortstack, I hit two-pair post flop, two spades on board, i have no spade. The other two call my shove, both have two spades, so only 7 spades left to hit the river, or about 1 in 8 chance, of course, It Hits.

---Heads up- I get River Flushed, I had 70-30 advantage.

I DO NOT PUT MYSELF IN BAD POSITIONS, I KNOW THAT NEGATIVE VARIANCE HAPPENS, THESE ARE ONLY A FEW OF THE EXAMPLES OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, I DON'T BELIEVE IN RIGGED SITES, BUT BY GOD IF I KEEP LOSING WITH K-K ON 7-7 I'M JUST QUITTING AND THINKING MERGE HAS MY ACCOUNT BLACKLISTED TO NOT WIN ANYMORE.

Insane is right

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95 -5 % number is way off and therefore probably clouding your expectations. Over pair vs under pair is around 80 -20 but that number moves a little depending on shared suits or non shared suits. Throw your hands in a poker calculator ... Texas Hold'em Odds Calculator

oops forgot to give you a site for uploading pics ... I use this one, but there are many other sites and ways to do it ...

ImageShack - Online Photo and Video Hosting

yea AA VS underpair is 80/20, and 55 vs A9 is right about 50/50. but i feel your pain, sometime you just run bad is all, shit i ran bad like u described for over a year str8 no bullshit, not just online either.... thats poker!!

yeah, i have really bad luck w/ pocket pairs myself, when i get one i'm always hesitant to go all in, even w/ AA, or i should say especially w/ AA

sucks man, im on a bit of a slump myself. but know, THIS IS POKER!!!

yea not much you can do when that stuff happens just gotta play through it

I didn't laugh at you, lol I laugh at my hand that won again in the early PO freeroll on the flop with my 77.

Don't quit playing becuase you got a bad day.

I had the same my AA shortstacks lose with KJ on a two pairs on TURN in Sunday Storm at Pokerstars, I think I'm getting even more bad beats than you.
My KK lose to 44 on Turn and River with a straight to be fair.
My KK lose to 1010 on Turn with trips.
I don't complain about quiting Poker for that.

The bad beats is part of Poker, you just need to try move forward.

too funny happen all the time

Hand history would be helpful, to see how these hands were being played pre flop.

That is pretty crazy, but it happens to all of us from time to time.

Feel your pain. Merge delivers some crazy beats. And like you I've been running bad for past few months. When you have days like that just take a break for a couple of days to cool off. good luck at the tables.

Just wanted it back on top : )

ooooh this really... i forget this ;)

When your this deep, close eyes and SHOVE, Variance Shmariance

Taking a sample size of only 5 or so hands doesn't prove anything. Statisticians won't take a sample size under 30 seriously. You need at least 30 sample's (in this case hands) to get a normal distribution. At this point the true odds "may" be visible. In the case of poker 30 hands is way to small due to the varying odds on each hand. If you have 30 hands of say AK vs QQ you will see the appropriate odds, but if all you have is 30 hands of coin flips and 60/40's the odds may still not be accurate to the true value.

Poker is a game of variance, you get cold. For example, I just lost A10vA4 and A10vA2, two hands that I should be winning the majority of the time. But that's poker, shit happens. Just have to move on

funny I ask playerscardroom for latest 3rd party audit certificate showing their games have been tested for fairness and randomness and they obliged,as did Bodog poker 2 years ago. Merge flat declines to show any kind of certificate or letter with testing results. Their "gaming commission" Kahnawake flat out ignores any correspondance to them.

in 3 min i lose 3 times with aa end i understend you man 1 is aa against j5

These are the kind of stretches that i find hard to believe also. Everyone always uses sample size to argue that it happens, but the odds are the odds, no matter what the sample size. I am assuming (and pretty sure you said it) that these hands all happened in a row, not necessarily right after each other, but no showdown where you were 80/20 and won in between the losses. The odds of being 80/20 4 times in a row and losing all 4 is (1/5)^4, which is 1/625. Now I have no problem with a 1/625 shot hitting, hell plenty of times i've been in casino and seen 8-10 reds in row on roulette wheel. But it seems that I go through stretches like this way too often, certainly more than 1/625, lol. Maybe (and i'm sure it is) my perception isn't reality. I never believed in rigged sites, but sometimes i wonder if they don't do something with deck to make it more exciting. Everyone always says why would they do that, but i remember playing holdem on pogo, and it was boring as hell, never much action, rarely any exciting hands. I don't really believe this, but if anything funny was going on, the only thing i'd think could be going on would be like using a smaller deck, taking some lower (boring) cards out of deck, which would make it easier to have action and increase excitement. The reason i never believe this is i assume if odds were out of whack, it would be noticed. Wish they would be more upfront with audits.

On the flip side, the odds of you winning all 4 80/20's is (4/5)^4 which is approximately 1/3. So that means during those stretches, you are going to lose at least 1 of them most of the time, and losses stick in your head better than wins, lol. Most likely, that is the reality of it.

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Originally Posted by KuShCanVaS

sucks man, im on a bit of a slump myself. but know, THIS IS POKER!!!

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yeah this?s poker... A-A lossing against 2-7o is very insane but it happen and enjoy when u had the bad hand...

2-3 days you say. Do you one table and write badbeats down on a sticky note?