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joefine Think you're imagining bad... 02-14-2012, 06:27 PM
bmeelneg how many hands were in your... 02-14-2012, 08:21 PM
joefine Sorry I should have added... 02-15-2012, 07:28 PM
bishking What? Can you explain it more... 02-15-2012, 02:43 AM
abwil2 im guessing his sample size... 02-15-2012, 09:10 AM
vzmoney sound very interesting tys... 02-15-2012, 09:04 PM
bmeelneg Some statistical stuff needs... 02-15-2012, 09:09 PM
ProBlackbird I don't need a Poker tracker,... 02-16-2012, 09:08 AM
tp3rd Funny thing is ,Merge... 02-16-2012, 09:48 AM
bmeelneg Please give us your expert... 02-16-2012, 12:30 PM
tp3rd can you read? Said the... 02-16-2012, 08:40 PM
abwil2 Bmeelneg, I cant speak for... 02-16-2012, 04:16 PM
tp3rd set up fro max action equals... 02-16-2012, 08:42 PM
joefine sorry guys - i didn't mean... 02-16-2012, 05:27 PM
bmeelneg No worries about that. I... 02-16-2012, 07:49 PM
joefine All the hands in the report... 02-16-2012, 09:26 PM
bmeelneg abwil There was a site a... 02-16-2012, 07:17 PM
wattery222 I don't believe Merge rigs... 02-16-2012, 07:42 PM
Drywallman3 this debate will go on and on... 02-16-2012, 08:53 PM
tp3rd true!!!!! just seems Merge... 02-16-2012, 08:59 PM
Prawney As ive said all the time. The... 02-16-2012, 09:02 PM
FORGOTTENBOY this is great stuff...thanks... 02-16-2012, 09:09 PM
  1. #1
    PokerOwned Master
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    292

    Think you're imagining bad beats....

    see for yourself with evidence. Found this article about calculating the standard deviation for ev all-in preflop and postflop.

    Online Poker Watchdog - Downloads - Test your own hand histories!

    If you used Poker Tracker they have 4 reports that you can download: 2 reports for cash - all-in ev preflop and all-in ev postflop as well as same 2 reports for tournaments.

    Make sure to watch the videos as the reports themselves don't make much sense. You need to export the reports and calculate the deviation in excel.

    I ran the test against the hands I have and found that the deviation for ALL records (this includes hand which were observed and I was not a part of) was within the acceptable parameters (i.e. within 2 standard deviations).

    Then I filtered only hands that I was involved and found that the standard deviation was 4x the ev, which is outside the norm. Guess I am not too crazy after all. I just hope this variance swings the other way and I start winning more than I should.

    Anyhow, thought I would share with the group so you can see just how bad you're running.

    Good luck at the tables!
    Last edited by joefine; 02-14-2012 at 06:33 PM.

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